Most managers go into their draft looking to build a balanced team, one that will compete in all ten scoring categories (assuming standard yahoo scoring). Some managers choose to "punt", or ignore, maybe one category at most. For example, if they miss out on grabbing any of the top tier closers, they might just ignore the saves category altogether, and instead focus on strengthening the rest of their team. Six-Four Strategy takes punting categories to a whole 'nother level.
In a standard yahoo head-to-head league there are ten scoring categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP. If you win six or more categories, you win the week. So, why waste your time trying to compete across the board in all ten categories? Instead, you can put yourself in a strong position to grab six of the ten categories - ignoring the other four - and win each week.
I got this idea in 2006, when a manager in one of my leagues employed this strategy. His idea was to draft only high average hitters, and load up on pitching. With at least ten starting pitchers and three closers he essentially guaranteed himself victories in W, SV, K, ERA, and WHIP. Then, with his high average sluggers, he banked on winning AVG every week.
His idea was good, but raw. First of all, batting average is an extremely unpredictable stat. It's hard to find hitters who will excel in the category EVERY season. On top of that, players are very streaky and have varied averages - batting .500 one week, and .100 the next. Furthermore, the manager did not maximize value with his pitching selections. He took Carlos Zambrano in the first round (ahead of the likes of Johan Santana), then Brad Lidge in the second, then Jason Schmidt in the third, and so on and so forth... he had the right idea, but it just begged for somebody to perfect it.
That person was me. The next year I decided to use this strategy in one of my leagues, with a few tweaks. First tweak = ditch the average. Replace it with stolen bases. Steals are easier to predict, and easier to load up on in the draft. Think of the late rounders that are one-tool base stealing machines: Willy Tavarez, Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, Juan Pierre, etc. The second tweak, maximize pitching value. You will have to reach on a lot of pitchers in the draft, but you don't want to overdue things. That's when you start making moves like taking Roy Oswalt in the first round, or a closer in the third who ultimately loses his job. The final tweak, avoid injury-prone players like the plague.
Injuries are completely unpredictable, but you can position yourself better by not touching players who have been on the disabled list multiple times. Rich Harden has a high ceiling, but he's not worth banking on. This is one of the biggest threats to this strategy. In 2007 when I first tried this strategy myself, I picked Chris Carpenter in the second round. This move killed my fantasy season, as he was hurt early on and never contributed the rest of the way. I lost an ace, and couldn't make up for it on the waiver wire.
Here are the key points, some of which were mentioned above:
1. Draft pitching early, draft it often. You will want roughly ten starting pitchers.
2. Draft elite closers. You aren't just getting them for saves, they will save you in ERA, WHIP, and they'll pitch multiple times a week.
3. Mix some basestealers into your selections. Don't be scared to take Jose Reyes in the first round if you have the chance, that will get you in a good position. If you miss out on a guy like him, don't worry, just grab your pitching instead and hold off on the steals until later.
4. Avoid anyone with recent, or multiple injuries. Francisco Liriano, Josh "Blisterin'" Beckett, and Rich Harden all come to mind.
5. Don't be afraid to skimp on offense. Catchers and firstbasemen typically are not stolen base machines. You might be better suited to not even draft a player for these positions, and instead grab an extra middle reliever or starting pitcher later in the draft.
6. Most of your bench will be pitching. Standard yahoo has 21 roster spots. You'll want roughly 13 pitchers and 8 hitters. Each additional pitcher means more opportunities for wins, more innings eaten, and more strikeouts. Anyone who can pad your pitching categories is a good addition.
7. The waiver wire is your best friend. You will make a lot of moves. Play the hot hands, and look for good pitching matchups. If it's late in the week, and you absolutely need a W to secure the wins category, look at the probable starters and find who's pitching against the Nationals, Royals, Padres, or other poor hitting teams.
8. This isn't a guarantee for every week. Sometimes your basestealers will score runs in bunches and you'll nab that category too, for a 7-3 win. Other times your pitching just won't click one week, and you may drop a few categories there to lose 4-6. On average it will even out, and you should make the playoffs. The nice thing about maximizing pitching is that the tie break in yahoo is ERA. This factor comes into play during the playoffs, where a 5-5 split is likely... but with the quality pitching you throw out you should win based on the ERA tie break more often than not.
So, how do you draft this season? Here is a projected first ten rounds of the draft:
Round - Player
1 - Top 5 pick = Jose Reyes. Anything lower take Johan Santana
2 - Tim Lincecum
3 - If Reyes in round 1, take a SP. If Johan in round 1, take Ichiro.
4 - Elite closer. You aren't drafting for SV's per se, so Nathan > Papelbon > K-Rod
5 - Elite closer. If no Ichiro or Reyes, you could swoop in on Ellsbury, Victorino.
6 - SP
7 - Chone Figgins
8 - SP/Closer
9 - SP/Closer
10 - Basestealer
The rest of the way you want to continue to load up on stolen bases and starting pitchers. In the first 10 rounds I think you should have 3 closers, 5 starters, and 2 offensive players. You can't be scared to reach on players. Johan is ranked 14th overall in yahoo, but he likely will be your first round selection regardless.
I ran a mock draft on www.couchmanagers.com to gear up for my real draft, and here's my team. NOTE: Couch Managers has roster limitations that yahoo does not - I was required to fill every position (including C, 1B) so I took players there that I would have normally replaced with more pitching. Also, they had a smaller roster size than yahoo, which meant less pitchers than I normally would have as well. My squad...
C - Kurt Suzuki (OAK - C)
1B - Paul Konerko (CHW - 1B)
2B - Rickie Weeks (MIL - 2B)
3B - Chone Figgins (LAA - 2B, 3B)
SS - Orlando Cabrera (CHW - SS)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki (SEA - OF)
OF - Lastings Milledge (WAS - OF)
OF - Willy Tavarez (CIN - OF)
Util - Carlos Gomez (MIN - OF)
SP - Johan Santana (NYM - SP)
SP - Tim Lincecum (SF - SP)
RP - Joe Nathan (MIN - CL)
RP - Jonathan Papelbon (BOS - CL)
P - Mariano Rivera (NYY - CL)
P - Jonathan Broxton (LAD - CL)
P - Jake Peavy (SD - SP)
BN - Felix Hernandez (SEA - SP)
BN - Matt Cain (SF - SP)
^With extra roster spots, and without Kurt Suzuki or Paul Konerko, I could have grabbed Aaron Harang, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, and others. My goal is usually to eclipse 250 steals with my picks. I brought in 240 with this bunch, but I'm still confident. Last season both Rickie Weeks and Chone Figgins missed considerable time. Given more playing time, I could have easily added 25 steals between these two if they were healthy... which would put me around 265+ for my grand total, and to use as my totally unscientific prediction for 2009.
This strategy is susceptible to one thing - minimum innings. If your opponent catches on to your strategy, he or she may find a way to knock you off. If they get a complete game shutout from a starter, and the minimum innings pitched for the week is 9, then they can bench their pitching for the rest of the week and they should take ERA and WHIP. For this reason you can't let on to your league that you are using the Six-Four Strategy. You have to play stupid, like you're a newbie manager who drafted crazy because you don't know what you're doing.
As usual, I will draft one league under this strategy this season and track the results on this blog. Feel free to follow along as I update throughout the season. Also, try it out, and spread the word. It is a fun strategy in a fantasy game that is typically dominated by hitting, to try to win with pitching. Good luck, and enjoy!
